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Is the Recession Over?

Economy of American SamoaImage via Wikipedia

It looks like the recession is over — at least technically. With Quarter 3 GDP numbers being reported today, it looks like the U.S. economy has moved from a period of loss into one of expansion. Economic data today was generally good, reports MarketWatch:

Along with improvements in key monthly figures on output and sales, the rise in real gross domestic product means the Great Recession is likely over in a technical sense, even as further job losses occur. A formal call on the end of the recession isn’t expected for months. …

“I anticipate that this is the turnaround, and that the numbers from here on out will be positive,” said Council of Economic Advisers Chairwoman Christina Romer in a televised interview.

Some are crediting economic stimulus measures for helping with the turnaround. It is important to note, though, that recovery is likely to be slow, and that for many individuals, a personal recession may continue for a while, since this economy is likely to see a “jobless recovery.”

Improving economy and buying a home

It also means that there is less of a chance of a double dip recession, or a return to another housing market dip. If this is the case, than it is quite likely that the housing bottom has already passed. If you have been waiting on buying  a home, it might be time to reconsider. It might be a good time to buy, while home prices are still low, mortgage rates are near record lows, and buyers have the upper hand.

In the end, an improving economy is likely to mean that some of the great opportunities and bargains that we are familiar with may not be available for much longer. It is true that the first time home buyer tax credit may be extended, but other than that, it is unlikely that all the great prices being seen right now will last.

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California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger Takes Aim Predatory Lending

Cropped image of Arnold Schwarzenegger.Image via Wikipedia

California is ready to enact tough laws aimed at restricting predatory lending practices. While over-reaching consumers certainly deserve some of the blame for the foreclosure crisis, some of the things mortgage lenders and brokers did in order to close deals were not above board. Many took advantage of their positions of trust to encourage borrowers to agree to mortgages that were not in their best interest. And while due diligence should be expected from borrowers, the fact of the matter is that there is a lot of paperwork, fine print and legalese to wade through. Even the best efforts can come up short.

In order to provide a little more protection to consumers, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed eight different laws. The Modesto Bee reports on some of the provisions in the laws:

  • Loan modification firms cannot collect fees up front.
  • Mortgage lenders must adhere to standardized licensing requirements.
  • Reverse mortgages will have new consumer protections built in.
  • Fraud in connection with a home mortgage loan application will be considered a felony.
  • Mortgage documents must be available in other languages besides English.
  • Buyers who purchase foreclosed homes will be able to choose their escrow and title companies.

Hopefully, the laws will discourage some of the deceptive practices that helped contribute to the foreclosure crisis. The new regulations should also hopefully cut down on scams perpetrated by loan modification and foreclosure prevention companies that take upfront fees and then do nothing. Additionally, it should give buyers a little more freedom and help as they choose companies of their choosing.

In the end, there needs to be a good balance between consumer protection and consumer responsibility. At first glance, it appears these laws should do that, providing consumer protections while at the same time not putting everything on mortgage lenders and brokers. It will be interesting to see if other states follow suit, adopting harsher laws aimed at curbing predatory lending practices.

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Bank of America Shakes Things Up on the Stock Market

Photo of Bank of America ATM Machine by Brian ...Image via Wikipedia

Just a couple of days ago, JP Morgan reported significant profits in the third quarter of 2009. This news was greeted with enthusiasm from investors, and sent the Dow above 10,000. The thought was that the financial system was improving, and that things were on the verge of improving. Yesterday, though, Citi announced that it is still struggling with bad debts and mortgages, and that put a damper on the party. Today, the stock market is in rout mode as Bank of America announces its third quarter was a rather dismal one. MarketWatch reports the bad news about Bank of America:

Bank of America said on Friday that it lost more than $2 billion in the third quarter as its provision for credit losses almost doubled, reflecting stressed consumers.

Bank of America said its net loss applicable to common shareholders was $2.24 billion, or 26 cents a share, in the third quarter, compared to a profit of $704 million, or 15 cents a share, a year ago.

The loss applicable to common shareholders includes preferred stock dividends of $1.24 billion in the latest quarter, compared to $704 million a year ago.

Before the accounting for preferred dividends, the company reported a loss of $1.00 billion in the third quarter, versus a $1.78 billion profit a year ago

It is clear that the financial sector may not really be ready to come roaring back. The news has sent the Dow back below 10,000 today as bears react to the sentiment. In the end, the financial sector is still trying to recover from the losses inflicted by the subprime mortgage market implosion and the financial crisis. These mortgage lenders are in tough shape, still. Even JP Morgan, which saw great profits, had to qualify its earnings report with the fact that non-performing assets are still on the balance sheet. Until the foreclosures stop, it is unlikely that the financial sector will be able to lead the economy to recovery.

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