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Is the Next Real Estate Collapse on the Way?

LAS VEGAS - MARCH 21:  Prospective buyers look...Image by Getty Images via Daylife

There are concerns that things may not be improving as much as hoped for the housing market. Sure, home prices seem to be stabilizing and the first time home buyer tax credit resulted in the sale of hundreds of thousands of homes. But another real estate collapse may be on the way — and we aren’t even recovered from this one. Here is what CNN Money points out about what could announce the run up to another housing market collapse:

“There is a lack of new debt,” says Michael Haas, a real estate attorney at Jones Day. “There is a hesitancy to extend credit when there is a real possibility that the real estate may be worth less than it was a few years ago.”

Now, in a situation eerily similar to the subprime crisis, the result is likely to be a wave of foreclosures and loan defaults that could, in turn, trigger a collapse in the market of the structured bonds backed by commercial real estate and construction debt.

There could be some indicators that another real estate collapse — and the accompanying mortgage crisis — could be imminent. Here are some signs to be on the watch for:

  1. Big Projects: Look out for what is happening with big commercial and residential projects that are starting to default. These projects may have gotten financing during the last bubble, but they may be struggling now. And if big projects default, that means that securities based on these loans will plunge.
  2. Special Servicers: These are mortgage lender firms and special servicers that take over loans that are heading for trouble in an effort to salvage the situation. When more loans are heading to special servicers, that means that it is likely that things are troubled in the mortgage market in general. That could be a sign that more defaults are coming.
  3. Regional Banks: So far, many local and regional banks have been fairly well shielded from the effects of the subprime mortgage crisis. Many of them did not take on risky loans and other debt. However, as the economy continues to remain sluggish, the regional projects financed by local banks may begin to falter, and that could cause another, more severe credit squeeze.

We’re not out of the woods yet, and it is important to be on the look out for signs that things may head into another wave of foreclosures. Although, if things do start improving markedly, none of these problems may surface.

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California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger Takes Aim Predatory Lending

Cropped image of Arnold Schwarzenegger.Image via Wikipedia

California is ready to enact tough laws aimed at restricting predatory lending practices. While over-reaching consumers certainly deserve some of the blame for the foreclosure crisis, some of the things mortgage lenders and brokers did in order to close deals were not above board. Many took advantage of their positions of trust to encourage borrowers to agree to mortgages that were not in their best interest. And while due diligence should be expected from borrowers, the fact of the matter is that there is a lot of paperwork, fine print and legalese to wade through. Even the best efforts can come up short.

In order to provide a little more protection to consumers, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed eight different laws. The Modesto Bee reports on some of the provisions in the laws:

  • Loan modification firms cannot collect fees up front.
  • Mortgage lenders must adhere to standardized licensing requirements.
  • Reverse mortgages will have new consumer protections built in.
  • Fraud in connection with a home mortgage loan application will be considered a felony.
  • Mortgage documents must be available in other languages besides English.
  • Buyers who purchase foreclosed homes will be able to choose their escrow and title companies.

Hopefully, the laws will discourage some of the deceptive practices that helped contribute to the foreclosure crisis. The new regulations should also hopefully cut down on scams perpetrated by loan modification and foreclosure prevention companies that take upfront fees and then do nothing. Additionally, it should give buyers a little more freedom and help as they choose companies of their choosing.

In the end, there needs to be a good balance between consumer protection and consumer responsibility. At first glance, it appears these laws should do that, providing consumer protections while at the same time not putting everything on mortgage lenders and brokers. It will be interesting to see if other states follow suit, adopting harsher laws aimed at curbing predatory lending practices.

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New Plan to Help Home Buyers in the Works

A suburban neighborhood in San Jose, California.Image via Wikipedia

It is little surprise that, even as the stock market soars today, that the home builder sentiment index is falling. The first time home buyer tax credit that so many have been taking advantage of over the last few months is set to expire November 30. However, since the mortgage has to close by the deadline, anyone who hasn’t already got things in motion is unlikely to make the deadline. And it also means that home sales are likely to dip this month, and the months after. No wonder home builders are concerned. So, with the imminent expiration of the first time home buyer tax credit (unless Congress extends the deadline), there is a new plan to help home buyers.

Obama Administration ready to unveil new plan to help home buyers

In order to try and continue stemming the tide of foreclosures, the Obama Administration is working on a new plan. This is not one that will help in terms of new home buyers. Subprime Blogger offers this summary of the new plan to help home buyers:

The new mortgage help plan will have two parts.  The first part will be a new bond purchase program that will support new lending by housing agencies.  The second part will be a temporary credit and liquidity program to improve the access that housing agencies have to credit sources.  This comes on the heels of the Federal Reserve Bank stopping their purchases of US Treasuries by the end of October.

Clearly, the idea is to keep mortgage interest rates low so that people are still interested in using home mortgage loans to purchase. (This should also help those wishing to refinance.) The plan will provide money to state housing agencies that work to help low to middle income earners buy homes. The idea is to provide funding so that more people can afford homes. It is important to be careful here, though, to make sure that buyers can afford the homes they are getting. Otherwise, we’ll end up with a repeat of the mortgage market disaster.

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