Mortgage Rate News

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For the third month in a row, foreclosures have declined. October saw a decline in home owners ready to lose their homes. Thanks to programs aimed at helping home owners refinance or modify their loans, foreclosures have been slowing. However, as BloggingStocks reports, there are still concerns for the future:

The number of homeowners on the brink of losing their homes continued to decline in October for the third straight month, as foreclosure prevention programs helped more borrowers. But foreclosure filings are still up 19% from a year ago, reaching more than 332,000 households, or one in every 385 homes. Rising unemployment could threaten the stabilizing trend.

Programs to help at-risk home owners aren’t much good if these home owners do not have jobs that can provide income. Therefore the continued weakness in the labor market is providing some concern. Advance unemployment data for last week is offering some hope, though. Jobless claims appear to have dropped by quite a bit, bringing the number down to around 502,000. This is the lowest it’s been for months.

However, the fact remains that jobs are still being lost.  They are being lost at a slower rate, but they are still being lost nonetheless. A dramatic reduction in the pace of job losses will be needed in order to provide a solid basis for economic recovery and quiet fears of continued destabilization in other parts of the economy.

At any rate, there is optimism that slowing unemployment will help matters in the housing market, also leading to slowing foreclosures. And, as more people take advantage of government programs meant to help them afford their homes, there is a strong likelihood that they will not have to be subject to foreclosure. And that in turn may help keep the housing market from sliding back into another dip next year.

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Freddie Mac saw a 3rd quarter loss of $5 billion as foreclosures continue to cause problems and the economic climate makes things difficult for individuals. Freddie Mac also expects, at some point, to request more funds from the U.S. Treasury. HousingWire reports on the state of the housing market and the mortgage market:

“We continued to see some positive housing market developments, including higher volumes of home sales and modest increases in house prices in certain areas of the country,” said CEO Charles Haldeman. “However, we believe that factors like high unemployment, excess inventory and rising foreclosures will continue to impede a full recovery for some time and put further downward pressure on house prices. We expect to request additional funds from Treasury as this prolonged deterioration of market conditions continues to negatively impact our financial results.”

Guaranty programs continue to see government support as the Obama Administration moves to help guaranty loans and provide insurance so that people can refinance their homes or get loan modification. However, it may not be enough. Foreclosure continue to mount, and these programs are still largely voluntary on the part of mortgage lenders. Additionally, loans need to be serviced by Fannie or Freddie in order for borrowers  to take advantage of many of the programs.

In the end, there is still a long way to go. Freddie Mac is likely to see more quarters of loss. Fannie Mae is also expected to continue to struggle. Fannie is also looking into more help from the Treasury Department’s senior preferred stock purchase program. It will be a long road ahead, but with Congress extending the first time home buyer credit, and other programs continuing, it is likely that the government will attempt to support the housing market for quite some time. The only question is whether or not the housing market will be able to survive without government help down the road.

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The first time home buyer tax credit has been extended — and expanded. The $8,000 credit has been extended by six months, and there has been an expansion to include current home owners who want to buy. Current home owners can get a $6,500 tax credit when they look for a new home. This is along the lines of the tentative agreement reached last week. Bible Money Matters offers a great summary of the main points for the new $6,500 tax credit:

• The credit is available for homes that go under contract by April 30, 2010 and close by June 30th, 2010.
• Current homeowners can claim a $6,500 credit as long as the property they are vacating has been their primary residence for at least five consecutive years out of the last eight years.
• Income limits: $125,000 a year for individuals, $225,000 a year for married couples. (these are higher limits than before)
• Homes that cost more than $800,000 aren’t eligible for the credit.
• $6500 tax credit is not retroactive.  (from the language of the bill: “shall apply to residences purchased after the date of the enactment of this Act.”)

Sadly, I don’t qualify. Which is okay, I suppose. We weren’t planning on moving any time soon, so it’s not like we would use it anyway. But it would still be nice to know that if we wanted to take advantage of such a great deal, we could. It’s not $15,000, but it’ll do. It’s better than nothing.

However, the tax credit extension is also expected to help keep home prices higher. The Wall Street Journal reports on the first time home buyer tax credit and its results:

Goldman Sachs estimates that the credit resulted in 200,000 sales this year, but that many of those sales were front-loaded—driven by a surge in sales shortly after the tax credit took effect. The simple extension “should result in fewer incremental first time purchases than the first round of the credit did,” writes Goldman economist Alec Phillips.

While the tax credit won’t reduce excess inventory, the incentives could keep prices up because “potential sellers are likely to incorporate a fraction of the credit amount in their sale price—with the knowledge that the majority of buyers will qualify for either the first time or move-up credit,” writes Mr. Phillips.