Mortgage Rate News

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For the third month in a row, foreclosures have declined. October saw a decline in home owners ready to lose their homes. Thanks to programs aimed at helping home owners refinance or modify their loans, foreclosures have been slowing. However, as BloggingStocks reports, there are still concerns for the future:

The number of homeowners on the brink of losing their homes continued to decline in October for the third straight month, as foreclosure prevention programs helped more borrowers. But foreclosure filings are still up 19% from a year ago, reaching more than 332,000 households, or one in every 385 homes. Rising unemployment could threaten the stabilizing trend.

Programs to help at-risk home owners aren’t much good if these home owners do not have jobs that can provide income. Therefore the continued weakness in the labor market is providing some concern. Advance unemployment data for last week is offering some hope, though. Jobless claims appear to have dropped by quite a bit, bringing the number down to around 502,000. This is the lowest it’s been for months.

However, the fact remains that jobs are still being lost.  They are being lost at a slower rate, but they are still being lost nonetheless. A dramatic reduction in the pace of job losses will be needed in order to provide a solid basis for economic recovery and quiet fears of continued destabilization in other parts of the economy.

At any rate, there is optimism that slowing unemployment will help matters in the housing market, also leading to slowing foreclosures. And, as more people take advantage of government programs meant to help them afford their homes, there is a strong likelihood that they will not have to be subject to foreclosure. And that in turn may help keep the housing market from sliding back into another dip next year.

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Technically, the recession may be over, but that doesn’t mean that individual financial problems are just going away. That’s not really how it works when it comes to personal finances. Instead, things are looking kind of desperate for some folks. The cumulative effects of a weak labor market and tighter credit (not to mention the things credit issuers have been doing that mean hardship for consumers) will be hard to shake off, and the latest data about bankruptcy filings bears this out.

Indeed, the American Bankruptcy Institute offers this report on the number of bankruptcy filings in October:

The 135,913 consumer bankruptcy filings in October represented a 27.9 percent increase over last October’s monthly total of 106,266, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI), relying on data from the National Bankruptcy Research Center (NBKRC). The October 2009 consumer filings represented an 8.9 percent increase from the September 2009 total of 124,790. Chapter 13 filings constituted 28.5 percent of all consumer cases in October, a slight increase from the September rate.

“The nearly 9 percent increase in consumer bankruptcy filings in October, together with a 7 percent jump reported in business cases, demonstrates the sustained stress on the U.S. economy,” said ABI Executive Director Samuel J. Gerdano. ABI forecasts that total bankruptcies this year will exceed 1.4 million, the highest number since 2005.

This is a new high, and likely represents the hard times that people have fallen upon. Traditionally, most bankruptcies are caused by medical bills and expenses. However, I’m wondering if this most recent rash of bankruptcies is more the product of job loss and an inability to keep up with everything due to economic conditions. And, of course, in some cases it might be a strategic decision to start all over, much like a strategic default.

Of course, the increase in bankruptcies should also serve as an important reminder to the rest of us: It is vital to prepare our personal finances ahead of time. Emergency funds, paying off debt and proper insurance can help. Although, in some cases, there are situations so devastating, or so long-term, that no amount of preparation can avert a financial catastrophe.

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There are concerns that things may not be improving as much as hoped for the housing market. Sure, home prices seem to be stabilizing and the first time home buyer tax credit resulted in the sale of hundreds of thousands of homes. But another real estate collapse may be on the way — and we aren’t even recovered from this one. Here is what CNN Money points out about what could announce the run up to another housing market collapse:

“There is a lack of new debt,” says Michael Haas, a real estate attorney at Jones Day. “There is a hesitancy to extend credit when there is a real possibility that the real estate may be worth less than it was a few years ago.”

Now, in a situation eerily similar to the subprime crisis, the result is likely to be a wave of foreclosures and loan defaults that could, in turn, trigger a collapse in the market of the structured bonds backed by commercial real estate and construction debt.

There could be some indicators that another real estate collapse — and the accompanying mortgage crisis — could be imminent. Here are some signs to be on the watch for:

1. Big Projects: Look out for what is happening with big commercial and residential projects that are starting to default. These projects may have gotten financing during the last bubble, but they may be struggling now. And if big projects default, that means that securities based on these loans will plunge.
2. Special Servicers: These are mortgage lender firms and special servicers that take over loans that are heading for trouble in an effort to salvage the situation. When more loans are heading to special servicers, that means that it is likely that things are troubled in the mortgage market in general. That could be a sign that more defaults are coming.
3. Regional Banks: So far, many local and regional banks have been fairly well shielded from the effects of the subprime mortgage crisis. Many of them did not take on risky loans and other debt. However, as the economy continues to remain sluggish, the regional projects financed by local banks may begin to falter, and that could cause another, more severe credit squeeze.

We’re not out of the woods yet, and it is important to be on the look out for signs that things may head into another wave of foreclosures. Although, if things do start improving markedly, none of these problems may surface.