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Gold Reaches $1,100, Dow Struggles to Remain in the Black

The Fed 2Image by afagen via Flickr

It’s an interesting day today on the financial markets. U.S. unemployment has breached the 10% mark, and that is driving things. However, it isn’t resulting in the rout that some might have expected on the stock market. Indeed, the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 are all barely in the black, holding tenaciously to gains made yesterday.

Another interesting result has been the sky-rocketing of gold prices. Just after the unemployment announcement, gold prices surged to $1,100, a new record high. Gold is back below $1,100, at around $1,093, but gold bugs are anticipating that the news means that pressure will be on the dollar going forward, as the Fed adheres to quantitative easing measures. MarketWatch reports on interest rate expectations:

Bets that the Federal Reserve will eventually lift interest rates from near zero fell slightly after the report. Fed fund futures indicated traders pared bets the Fed would raise its target rate by mid-2010 to 0.31%, compared to a 0.33% rate before the data.

On Wednesday, the Fed left its target rate in a range of between 0% and 0.25%, and repeated its commitment to keep rates low for the foreseeable future, citing slack in the economy and little reason to worry about inflation.

Helping the stock market is the commitment by Congress to prop up the housing market by extending the first time home buyer tax credit, and expanding it so that even some current home owners can take advantage of a tax credit. The news reinforces the idea that the government plans to continue propping up the economy as much as possible.

So, while the unemployment rate remains high, there are still indications that economic recovery will roll forward, albeit slowly. As a result, it doesn’t hurt to begin thinking about how you plan to invest in an economic recovery.


Disclaimer: I am not an investment professional. Nothing in this piece or on this Web site should be construed as investment advice. Before making investment decisions, do your own research and/or consult with an investment professional. All investment comes with the risk of loss. You are responsible for your own investment decisions and any loss that may result from your decisions.

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Stocks Make Another Run at 10,000

The Bull on Wall StreetImage by pitchyourbiz via Flickr

Many investors are wary of stock market rallies right now. There is concern that unless the Dow can sustain itself above 10,000, signs of an imminent recovery aren’t good. While the truth is that it will probably be some time before a lot of the volatility smooths out and economic recovery really picks up speed, investors are nonetheless interested in Dow 10,000. And, after being below that psychologically important level for some time, it looks the bulls are making a run at it today.

Indeed, yesterday’s economic policy statement from the Fed is inspiring some hope as investors see that the Fed is willing to continue propping up Wall Street banks for a little longer. Additionally, economic data is encouraging. Jobs claims data shows that the employment picture is improving, albeit at a rather slow pace. Retail sales data from October showed an increase that was bigger than expected, and there is optimism for the holiday shopping season. And, productivity is on the rise, reports BusinessWeek:

U.S. nonfarm productivity growth rose at a torrid 9.5% clip in the third quarter, the fastest pace in six years and much higher than economists had expected. It follows a revised 6.9% rate of growth in the second quarter (from 6.6%).

“Obviously cost cutting and layoffs through the recession have kept productivity rising at very robust rates,” said Action Economics analysts in a website posting Thursday.

All of this news has the stock market in an upbeat mood, driving toward 10,000, and hoping to set the stage to break through that barrier today or tomorrow. It is important to be wary, however, since economic data isn’t that great, and economic recovery is supposed to be a slow process.


Disclaimer: I am not an investment professional. Nothing in this piece or on this Web site should be construed as investment advice. Before making investment decisions, do your own research and/or consult with an investment professional. All investment comes with the risk of loss. You are responsible for your own investment decisions and any loss that may result from your decisions.

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Ford Energizes the Stock Market

Ford Motor CompanyImage via Wikipedia

Ford, the only of the Big 3 American automakers to not need government bailout money (although the company did request a standby line of credit “just in case”), reported a profit of $1 billion for the third quarter. The news has provided a jolt of energy to a stock market that ended October on a rather dour note. Stocks are gaining, with the Dow up more than 100 points. It is far from certain that the stock market will be able to recoup all of its losses from last Friday, but it looks like the bulls are willing to give it a try. It may even be that the Dow makes another run at 10,000 this week.

However, some of the stock market’s success this week will depend on what happens with other news. Economic data will be heavy this week, so it will be necessary for the economy to show some fight and signs of recovery in order for the stock market to truly overcome. European stocks are higher as well, providing some help. And the stock market barely noticed the fact that CIT declared bankruptcy. The company claims that most of its debt holders are on board with the plan for reorganization, so the fifth-largest U.S. bankruptcy doesn’t appear to be causing a lot of consternation.

It will be interesting to see what happens going forward. Ford claims that it should be solidly profitable by 2011, and that things are looking up. Most of last quarter’s profits came with help from the Cash for Clunkers program, so it will be interesting to see whether Ford can remain sanguine moving forward.


Disclaimer: I am not an investment professional. Nothing in this piece or on this Web site should be construed as investment advice. Before making investment decisions, do your own research and/or consult with an investment professional. All investment comes with the risk of loss. You are responsible for your own investment decisions and any loss that may result from your decisions.

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