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Avoiding Value Traps When You Invest

One of the most difficult things, especially if you are looking for an investment with solid value, is figuring out how to avoid a trap. However, there are a number of value traps that are present in the stock market. The Motley Fool offers some information on five value traps, and what you should do about them:

1. The quarter-life crisis
These are real heartbreakers. You find a dominant company whose once-sky-high growth has stalled, and its shares along with it. “TechWidget Corp. is trading at only 15 times earnings right now, only half its five-year average!” you say. “Its earnings have doubled over the past five years, but the shares are down over the same time period. Sounds like a steal!” …

Instead of returning incremental profits to shareholders via dividends, such companies wreck shareholder value by chasing growth through non-core expansion and high-profile acquisitions. Oh, and the ill-timed share repurchases that exist primarily to juice per-share earnings and help sop up all that stock option-driven dilution.

Steer clear of flailing tech titans until they’re ready, willing, and able to follow the lead of a Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) or an Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL) into dividend-paying adulthood.

2. The soaring cyclical
Here’s the thing about cyclical stocks: Their P/E ratios are counterintuitive. They always look the cheapest when they’ve reached their priciest, and look priciest when they’ve reached their cheapest. …

But savvy investors know that cyclical companies’ profits mean-revert, which is why cyclical stocks’ P/E multiples stay low during booms and high during busts. In other words, you should be looking at cyclical stocks as their P/Es expand, not shrink.

3. The small-cap Methuselah
The six-year small-cap bull run that came crashing to a halt last year was a painful reminder of a little-known value trap: the small-cap Methuselah. …

Show me a company with a long, proven history of creating serious shareholder value, and I’ll show you a mid- or large-cap stock.

4. The too-high yielder
A company usually has a high yield (think above 7%) for one of three reasons:

  • It has limited growth potential, so managers return as much cash as they can to shareholders. Think regional telecoms.
  • The company is in a clear state of decline and investors expect a dividend cut. Think terrestrial radio or newspapers.
  • The company is in a tax-advantaged structure that doesn’t allow it to retain much capital. Think business development companies, real estate investment trusts, or master limited partnerships.

Broadly speaking, a fat dividend is a good thing. There’s a fine line, though. At Motley Fool Income Investor, we’re looking for that sweet spot where an attractive payout meets rest-easy status.

5. The unopened book
Book values need to be adjusted — especially heading into and during recessions. Acquisition-happy companies inevitably end up slashing the goodwill they’d booked while making bloated acquisitions in the years previous. …

We’re only interested in good values if they also happen to be great businesses, companies with years of exceptional performance behind and ahead of them.

In the end, it’s up to you to look for true value. And you may not find it in the trend of the moment. In fact, you are likely to find that the investing trend of the moment offers almost no true value at all.

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Income Investing: Bonds vs. Stocks

Stock Market Fortune CookieImage by bransorem via Flickr

One of the more heated debates that goes on in the world of income investing is whether stocks should be favored, or whether bonds should be the investment of choice. As always, what you do depends on your personal situation, and what you are comfortable with. A financial professional can also help you chart your course. But it does help to take a look at some of the basics of bonds and stocks when trying to make your decision.

Bonds

Bonds are considered safer than stocks. They are normally fairly reliable, especially U.S. government bonds. Even some corporate and municipal bonds are reasonably reliable (while offering higher returns than Treasuries). Unfortunately, bond returns are relatively low, to go along with this lower risk. In many cases, your income from bonds is eroded by inflation. On top of that, right now bond interest is taxed at your income rate — which means that between taxes and inflation your income could be very low indeed. Investing in TIPS can actually help you combat the effects of inflation, though.

Stocks

The Motley Fool points out that over time, stocks outperform bonds in most cases:

Over long periods, stocks have outperformed bonds. Period. They have done so more than 95% of the time in the 20-year periods between 1871 and 2006.

Another valid point is the fact that there are dividend-paying stocks that provide even more income on top of returns from stock increases. Dividends are also taxed at a lower rate, capping out at 15%. (Buy and hold investors can also enjoy the the tax efficiency of long term capital gains.) And if you use DRIPs, you can reinvest your dividends free of charge — it’s like using free money to buy more shares. You can adjust this down the road as you need the income.

In the end, some diversity in your holdings is a good thing. But don’t be so concerned about the stock market that you overweight your investment portfolio with bonds and neglect the advantages that can come your way through stocks.


Disclaimer: I am not an investment professional. Nothing in this piece or on this Web site should be construed as investment advice. Before making investment decisions, do your own research and/or consult with an investment professional. All investment comes with the risk of loss. You are responsible for your own investment decisions and any loss that may result from your decisions.

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Profit Taking: Getting Out While You Are Ahead

WUHAN, CHINA - JUNE 5:   Investors check stock...Image by Getty Images via Daylife

One of main features of day trading is profit taking. Today, profit taking is a major reason that the Dow is slumping in a direction that could very well take it back below the 10,000 mark. In profit taking, the goal is to get out when you have profits. In most cases, these profits are not necessarily large. They are often small, as investors take what they make to avoid the chance of loss later on. (The opposite of this is running profits, in which you try to keep going in the hopes that your profits will get bigger and bigger, attempting to sell just before the investment turns around.)

Profit taking is a strategy that can be used with most investments. Day traders use it with stocks, and it is a very popular technique for active forex traders. Some commodities and futures traders use profit taking as well. Profit taking is a way to ensure that your losses are limited, since you get out as soon as a position is profitable for you, whether than waiting to see whether things get better. You end up with a lot of small profits, rather than one huge payoff. On the other hand, you are less likely to sustain large losses, which is a very definite risk of running profits.

It is important to be careful when you use profit taking as an integral part of your investment strategy. Every time you place a trade, you end up having to pay some sort of a transaction fee. And, of course, the taxes on short term capital gains is larger than the taxes you pay on long term capital gains. So if you are not careful, your profits can be eaten away by taxes and fees.


Disclaimer: I am not an investment professional. Nothing in this piece or on this Web site should be construed as investment advice. Before making investment decisions, do your own research and/or consult with an investment professional. All investment comes with the risk of loss. You are responsible for your own investment decisions and any loss that may result from your decisions.

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