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Gold Slows Its Ascent

Gold Key, weighing one kilogram is used to acc...Image via Wikipedia

While gold is still higher today, it has slowed considerably on economic concerns and the fact that the U.S. dollar is trying to rally today. MarketWatch reports on the latest close for gold futures:

Gold futures ended Thursday’s trading marginally higher, as traders reacted to a rebounding U.S. dollar and a slew of economic data. Gold for December delivery, the most actively traded contract, rose 70 cents to end at $1,141.90 an ounce. The thinly traded November contract also gained 70 cents to $1,141.40 an ounce. Both contracts have risen more than 9% so far this month.

With the U.S. dollar gaining on economic recovery concerns, it is little surpise that gold prices have slowed. Gold often moves inversely to the greenback’s performance in forex trading. And with the dollar strengthening as investors consider their possible rashness in pushing stocks so high so fast, the desire for gold as a hedge against inflation is declining.

Another consideration is how quickly gold has risen. There are concerns that gold is experiencing a bubble right now, and that it could burst — especially going forward. Instead, some are recommending silver as an investment. Silver hasn’t had the same sort of runaway success as gold has had in recent weeks, and silver is generally more accessible in terms of being able to afford the price per ounce.

In the end, though having precious metals in your portfolio — whether it is physical or through some instrument like an ETF — can be a good way to help diversify.

Disclaimer: I am not an investment professional. Nothing in this piece or on this Web site should be construed as investment advice. Before making investment decisions, do your own research and/or consult with an investment professional. All investment comes with the risk of loss. You are responsible for your own investment decisions and any loss that may result from your decisions.

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Stocks Falter on Housing Market News, Double-Dip Recession Concerns

A Floor Trader checking market pricesImage via Wikipedia

The U.S. stock market is heading lower today, thanks to the latest economic news. While traders mostly shrugged off the latest inflation data from October, they did take the fact that housing starts were dramatically lower to heart. Indeed, this concern has sent the three major U.S. indices lower. However, the move lower is not a complete rout, as the losses are relatively modest. The Dow has yet to lose 45 points. Another concern is that there could be a double-dip recession. This might cause some to reconsider making large moves with their portfolios.

Indeed, one of the reasons that gains and losses yesterday and today have been relatively staid is that volume is way down. MarketWatch reports on trading volume for the U.S. stock market:

On trading floors, professional traders lamented a lack of market participants once again Wednesday. Even during the Dow’s now more-than-two-week run higher, volume has slowed down dramatically, with traders saying many of their larger clients, including hedge funds, have ceased making large portfolio changes lately.

“This is another quiet day in a string of quite a few,” said Stephen Leuer, a floor trader with X-FA Trading in Chicago. “Some shops are making assumptions we will continue this rally through the end of the year and not making many changes. It’s kind of like a game of musical chairs, everyone is still standing around not ready to take a seat — just waiting for someone else to make the first move.”

For most ordinary investors, who use online trading accounts and retirement accounts for the bulk of their investing, this remains largely a waiting game as investors reposition their holdings and look into low-cost index funds and ETFs that have the potential for gains in an earnest economic recovery. And, of course, those engaging in buy and hold investing, as well as dollar cost averaging, will be holding steady.

Disclaimer: I am not an investment professional. Nothing in this piece or on this Web site should be construed as investment advice. Before making investment decisions, do your own research and/or consult with an investment professional. All investment comes with the risk of loss. You are responsible for your own investment decisions and any loss that may result from your decisions.

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Avoiding Value Traps When You Invest

One of the most difficult things, especially if you are looking for an investment with solid value, is figuring out how to avoid a trap. However, there are a number of value traps that are present in the stock market. The Motley Fool offers some information on five value traps, and what you should do about them:

1. The quarter-life crisis
These are real heartbreakers. You find a dominant company whose once-sky-high growth has stalled, and its shares along with it. “TechWidget Corp. is trading at only 15 times earnings right now, only half its five-year average!” you say. “Its earnings have doubled over the past five years, but the shares are down over the same time period. Sounds like a steal!” …

Instead of returning incremental profits to shareholders via dividends, such companies wreck shareholder value by chasing growth through non-core expansion and high-profile acquisitions. Oh, and the ill-timed share repurchases that exist primarily to juice per-share earnings and help sop up all that stock option-driven dilution.

Steer clear of flailing tech titans until they’re ready, willing, and able to follow the lead of a Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) or an Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL) into dividend-paying adulthood.

2. The soaring cyclical
Here’s the thing about cyclical stocks: Their P/E ratios are counterintuitive. They always look the cheapest when they’ve reached their priciest, and look priciest when they’ve reached their cheapest. …

But savvy investors know that cyclical companies’ profits mean-revert, which is why cyclical stocks’ P/E multiples stay low during booms and high during busts. In other words, you should be looking at cyclical stocks as their P/Es expand, not shrink.

3. The small-cap Methuselah
The six-year small-cap bull run that came crashing to a halt last year was a painful reminder of a little-known value trap: the small-cap Methuselah. …

Show me a company with a long, proven history of creating serious shareholder value, and I’ll show you a mid- or large-cap stock.

4. The too-high yielder
A company usually has a high yield (think above 7%) for one of three reasons:

  • It has limited growth potential, so managers return as much cash as they can to shareholders. Think regional telecoms.
  • The company is in a clear state of decline and investors expect a dividend cut. Think terrestrial radio or newspapers.
  • The company is in a tax-advantaged structure that doesn’t allow it to retain much capital. Think business development companies, real estate investment trusts, or master limited partnerships.

Broadly speaking, a fat dividend is a good thing. There’s a fine line, though. At Motley Fool Income Investor, we’re looking for that sweet spot where an attractive payout meets rest-easy status.

5. The unopened book
Book values need to be adjusted — especially heading into and during recessions. Acquisition-happy companies inevitably end up slashing the goodwill they’d booked while making bloated acquisitions in the years previous. …

We’re only interested in good values if they also happen to be great businesses, companies with years of exceptional performance behind and ahead of them.

In the end, it’s up to you to look for true value. And you may not find it in the trend of the moment. In fact, you are likely to find that the investing trend of the moment offers almost no true value at all.

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