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Archive for September, 2009

Economic Contraction Continues to Slow

New York Stock Exchange, New York City.Image via Wikipedia

Stock investors are calming down after this morning’s attempt by bears to completely sell off. The negative news about the purchasing managers index initially sent shock waves through Wall Street, and resulted in a drop of more than 100 point on the Dow. However, revised GDP data has come in for quarter two, and things are looking better than expected. The Street reports on the results of the latest GDP revision:

The Bureau of Economic Analysis said that the economy shrank by a much more svelte 0.7% annual rate during the second quarter, or over the period between April and June.

Several analysts’ forecasts held that this newest revision would produce a 1.2% contraction.

The slowing contraction pace also marked an improvement compared to the government’s own previous estimate released last month, which showed GDP shrinking by 1% during the quarter.

The fact that the pace of economic contraction is slowing is providing some investors and analysts with hope that the recession is coming to an end. Additionally, there is some cautious optimism that the third quarter might have actually seen some economic growth. We won’t know, of course, until the end of the fourth quarter when the revisions are made, but there is some speculation that the recession has ended, and that the process of economic recovery (which is expected to take some time) is ready to begin.

The news has some investors feeling more confident. The Dow is back to within 20 points of going positive. The Nasdaq has actually moved into the black, thanks to a rally in tech stocks, and the S&P 500 has nudged itself into positive territory. Such news means that perhaps the bears can be completely overcome to end September on a higher note. But we’ll see. There are still three hours to go…


Disclaimer: I am not an investment professional. Nothing in this piece or on this Web site should be construed as investment advice. Before making investment decisions, do your own research and/or consult with an investment professional. All investment comes with the risk of loss. You are responsible for your own investment decisions and any loss that may result from your decisions.

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Bulls Can’t Keep it Together

Economy of American SamoaImage via Wikipedia

Yesterday, the U.S. stock market turned in a solid performance, ending higher as mergers dominated the news. The fact that many companies seem ready to do the deals and move forward with the business of recovering sent investors scurrying to buy. Today, though, the bulls can’t seem to keep together. Instead, the stock market is heading lower, with the Dow approaching a loss of 40 points this morning.

The drop comes after earlier gains in the stock market. Some were thinking that maybe bulls could yesterday’s run to build momentum and inch closer to 10,000. However, that doesn’t seem likely at this point. CNN Money reports on how “tired” the stock market feels:

Neil Adams, a broker at MF Global in London, said the market “feels a little tired, around 98 especially,” a reference to the Dow Jones industrial average closing at 9,789 on Monday.

“So whether we’ll have a euphoric run for 10,000, I don’t know,” said Adams. “I think people are seeing that maybe stocks have run as long as they can until they see some concrete evidence that things are improving.”

Clearly, investors are going to need a little bit more than the prospect of some deal making to support a run at 10,000. Investors need to see some substantial improvement in the U.S. economy, and with the labor market remaining rather weak, that needed evidence is going to be slow in coming. Even with home sales on the rise, solid improvement in the unemployment rate is needed in order to help kick-start things for the economy and provide the kind of confidence that the bulls need in order to prevail on the U.S. stock market.


Disclaimer: I am not an investment professional. Nothing in this piece or on this Web site should be construed as investment advice. Before making investment decisions, do your own research and/or consult with an investment professional. All investment comes with the risk of loss. You are responsible for your own investment decisions and any loss that may result from your decisions.

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Things to Remember When Investing

One of the most important things you can pay attention to when investing is your asset allocation. But this is not the only thing consider when investing. There is a whole host of other considerations. However, these are not things that are terribly onerous or difficult to understand. Jeremy at Generation X Finance offers these helpful hints on what things, beyond asset allocation, to consider when investing:

  1. Risk tolerance. This includes understanding your market risk, credit risk, interest rate risk and inflation risk. I would also include the fact that you need to understand your emotional risk tolerance as well as your financial risk tolerance. Sacrificing your peace of mind can be a real problem.
  2. Go beyond your age. Rules of thumb that give you an asset allocation based on your age often do not include the types of stocks or bonds you have in your investment portfolio. Before blindly following some formula, make sure you understand what you plan to put into it.
  3. Concentrate on your needs. You should look at your own needs, rather than going with what worked for someone else. Look at what you will need in the future, and your goals. This way you can create an individualized plan that will work best for you, and help you reach your financial goals.
  4. Adapt. You need to recognize that sometimes changes in the market, as well as changes in your needs and goals, may mean an adjustment to your investment portfolio. Just be careful not to change things up too often — it could result in your returns being eroded by transaction fees!


Disclaimer: I am not an investment professional. Nothing in this piece or on this Web site should be construed as investment advice. Before making investment decisions, do your own research and/or consult with an investment professional. All investment comes with the risk of loss. You are responsible for your own investment decisions and any loss that may result from your decisions.

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