Money & Investing - Banks.com

One of the indicators of how Wall Street is likely to do next week will come from this year’s Black Friday weekend (the one day has turned into an entire weekend that encompasses Wednesday through Sunday). And it may be a bit lackluster. The Boston Globe reports on expectations for the Black Friday weekend:

Preliminary reports from major retailers including Macy’s, KB Toys, Best Buy, and Toys “R” Us, and mall operators across the country said the crowds were at least as large as last year’s. But the National Retail Federation is projecting an 11 percent drop, or about 6 million fewer people who will shop over the Black Friday weekend. And nearly half the people in a recent survey said they plan to spend less than they did last year, according to BIGresearch, which also conducted the retail federation survey forecasting fewer shoppers. Black Friday historically is the time of year when retailers turn a profit.

If sales during this weekend are lackluster, analysts say that it probably reflects consumer anxiety amid the economic downturn, the plunge in the stock and housing markets, and an increasing number of layoffs. To move their goods, many retailers will have to aggressively cut prices.

I can’t really speak to Black Friday from my own observation, because I’ve only been out on Black Friday twice in my life: Once, years ago when my husband and I went with his aunt because no one else would; and yesterday, because my parents were down for Thanksgiving and mom wanted to go to two stores to get my dad’s Christmas shopping done under cover of mother-daughter bonding. Both times I went, it was around 8 or 9 in the morning, and I only saw a couple of stores. But by then, the crazy hordes had passed on, doorbusters in hand, and lines at registers were *only* 10 minutes long.

But I know that Black Friday can get crazy. Every year there are stories of someone seriously injured, or even killed. And this year is no different. Apparently the desire to get a great deal in this economy is so overwhelming that people don’t always act like people. And even so, it appears that this year’s consumerism is down. We’ll have to see what the stock market things on Monday.

Right now, there are plenty of deals to be had. Indeed, this year Black Friday has exceeded itself. And the stock market responded positively today in a half-session. Many retailers are offering extended sales, two day Black Friday affairs that are expanding into Saturday. Some retailers even have been running sales since yesterday. On Thanksgiving. Others started the deals on Wednesday, allowing the deals to mount and culminate today (usually at some obscene time, like four or five in the morning).

At any rate, the hope is that the extended sales will draw even more people into stores over this weekend, getting things started off “right” for the holiday season. And it may work. There is thought that if enough people get out there and “stimulate the economy”, then it will help the stock market and boost the confidence of the American consumer. (And, with that confidence the hope is that the American consumer will in turn spend even more.) SalesBlog.com explains the implications of Black Friday rather well:

If you plan to do any holiday shopping, then for the sake of the economy, do it tomorrow. See Black Friday, or the Friday after Turkey Day is a day of judgment. If the day proves to be healthy to the retail market, the Dow Jones will sky rocket over the next week, confidence will rise, and consumers will spend even more money on the holidays. If the days outcome is gloomy, the Dow will plummet and people will horde what they have in fear.

A lot is being done this year, Black Friday aside, to ensure that the consumer can keep spending — preferably using debt. This is the latest focus of TARP. If consumers can keep getting loans and extended credit, then they will keep spending money, boosting profits and stock prices and keeping the engine humming. The efforts by retailers and the government to kick start this holiday shopping season are monumental.

But we’ll have to wait until Monday — and a full stock market session — to see how well things have worked.

The Banks.com investing blog wants to wish you a very:

Happy Thanksgiving!

The stock market looks to be recovering — albeit slowly — and that is something to be thankful for. Will tomorrow bring a bounce on Black Friday hopes? We’ll have to see.

At any rate, this is a time of year to contemplate the things that you have, and to be thankful for them. I like Thanksgiving because it seems to be a holiday that is not about spending money like crazy on stuff that no one needs. Instead, it is a truly family-centric holiday that remains — relatively — uncommercialized. Nice.

For fun, I took this Thanksgiving Quiz, and even learned a few cool facts about Thanksgiving and about turkeys:

• Thanksgiving was first celebrated in 1621.
• It wasn’t until Abraham Lincoln, though, that a national day of thanksgiving was declared.
• FDR, in an effort to boost the economy with holiday shopping, encouraged that the day be fixed as the last Thursday in November.
• Benjamin Franklin wanted the national bird to be the turkey.
• Minnesota produces the most turkeys on an annual basis.
• 90% of Americans have turkey on Thanksgiving.
• That number drops to 50% for Christmas.
• Wild turkeys can fly up to 55 miles per hour.

I’m wondering if maybe it is a good idea to invest in turkey farms, processors and producers in the weeks leading up to Thanksgiving. It certainly seems as though all things turkey are expected to get a pop in the run up to Thanksgiving…

Disclaimer: I am not an investment professional. Nothing in this piece or on this Web site should be construed as investment advice. Before making investment decisions, do your own research and/or consult with an investment professional. All investment comes with the risk of loss. You are responsible for your own investment decisions and any loss that may result from your decisions.