Money & Investing - Banks.com

Archive for October, 2008

Rethinking Gold as a Safe Haven

Gold has often been thought of as a safe haven in times of economic turmoil. When everything else fails, gold, a tangible asset, is usually considered stable — as well as a hedge against inflation.

But it hasn’t been working out that way.

The U.S. dollar has been strengthening, and gold has been volatile. BusinessWeek points this out about safe haven investments:

Faber agrees that investors will have to constantly reassess their safe-haven strategy and that the very concept of what is safe is a moving target. “What is safe today may change quickly tomorrow or next month,” he says. “Nothing is 100% safe at times like this.”

Right now, BusinessWeek says that Swiss currency funds, silver and farms could be reasonable safe haven investments for this particular economic time. It’s an interesting thought.

Cash and the economic crisis

Another thought is that cash may be a reasonable investment at this time. It doesn’t have great returns, but it usually manages to beat inflation. And it is relatively safe. While I would not want cash to make up most of my portfolio, I do not mind having some. Patrick at Cash Money Life is also of this opinion. He points this out about his CD ladder:

CDs aren’t the best investment for people looking to make a lot of money - even at the best of times they probably only just keep pace with inflation. But keeping some of your investments in cash can help smooth your returns and mitigate against large losses like we have recently seen in the world markets.

Another thing to watch out for with cash investments, though, is interest. Unfortunately, yield is falling, since the Fed rate keeps being cut. Indeed, it might be a good idea to clinch some CDs now, since there is even speculation that the rate could be cut to zero if things get desperate enough.

On another note, enjoy a Happy Halloween!


Watch Halloween — New Chart Pattern in How to Videos  |  View More Free Videos Online at Veoh.com

Disclaimer: I am not an investment professional. Nothing in this piece or on this Web site should be construed as investment advice. Before making investment decisions, do your own research and/or consult with an investment professional. All investment comes with the risk of loss. You are responsible for your own investment decisions and any loss that may result from your decisions.

AddThis Social Bookmark Button

Exxon Mobil (XOM) Breaks Its Own Profit Record

Quarter 3 earnings reports have been coming out, and once again Exxon Mobil (XOM) has managed to steal the crown. The company has broken its own profit record with $14.83 billion in one quarter. Nearly $15 billion in one quarter. CNN Money has the numbers:

Exxon Mobil, the leading U.S. oil company, said its third-quarter net profit was $14.83 billion, or $2.86 per share, up from $9.41 billion, or $1.70, a year earlier. That profit included $1.45 billion in special items.

The company’s prior record was $11.68 billion in the second quarter of 2008.

The latest quarter’s net income equaled $1,865.69 per second, nearly $400 a second more than the prior mark.

The company said its revenue totaled $137.7 billion in the third quarter.

It is well to remember that the 3rd quarter of 2008 saw record oil prices, and that is helping Exxon. The company has been selling its gas stations and other downstream sources of revenue and focusing on upstream processes. So oil prices have played a huge role in Exxon’s success.

With oil prices  falling now, though, Exxon’s profits may not be as large for quarter 4, but we will have to wait to see whether yesterday’s Fed rate cut will spur demand for oil, bringing a turnaround in oil prices.

Exxon’s share price still down

However, rather than boosting the stock price of XOM, the earnings announcement has kept things the same. Indeed, Exxon Mobil is down in stock trading today. For those interested in value investing, it may not be a bad time to purchase Exxon stock, since it is likely to increase over time, and could be seen as a good deal right now.

Disclaimer: I am not an investment professional. Nothing in this piece or on this Web site should be construed as investment advice. Before making investment decisions, do your own research and/or consult with an investment professional. All investment comes with the risk of loss. You are responsible for your own investment decisions and any loss that may result from your decisions.

Tags: , , , ,
, ,

AddThis Social Bookmark Button

Are There Tell-Tale Signs to Sell a Stock?

When is it time to sell a stock?With yesterday’s impressive 889 point rally on the Dow, many people are starting to think that maybe it is okay to be invested in the stock market after all (well, until the next big drop). But decisions to buy and sell should be based on more than what everyone is doing and how that happens to be affecting the stock market. The Motley Fool offers three signs that it is time to sell a stock:

  1. Management issues.
  2. Competitive disadvantages.
  3. Unstable financial model.

I have to say that I agree. (Well, who is going to disagree with the Fool?) I am a big fan of looking at the fundamentals. Since I am a long-term investor looking for solid value — even if the returns aren’t large and fast — the fundamentals are important to me.

Management issues

Is the management of the company selfish? Is management inept? Or both? These are clues that what’s best for the shareholders is not something that the company is really worried about. The Motley Fool suggests these as clues regarding management issues:

  • Active insider selling
  • Declining market share
  • Excessive executive compensation
  • Aggressive accounting

I’d also add in there a lack of transparency with regard to corporate governance and accounting. If management doesn’t want you to see what is going on, there is probably a reason.

Competitive disadvantages

Choose companies that have some sort of advantage over the competition. If you see that a company whose stock you own is at a distinct disadvantage, it is probably an indication that you need to consider selling. This disadvantage could cause problems later. If, however, the company has a disadvantage that it is working to correct, it might be wise to withold final judgment for a time — provided you have the time.

Unstable financinal model

One of the reasons my retirement account hasn’t been terribly hard hit is because the companies in it don’t rely on devices that make the company fundamentally unstable. Financing companies and investments banks that made their money on derivatives (basically insurance against debt) were banking on a model that is fundamentally unstable. Indeed, a great deal of consumer debt is unstable, and if a company relies heavily on that sort of thing, you can see where trouble might arise. The Motley Fool recommends that you consider these items when looking at a business model:

  • Rising (or at least stable) margins
  • Control over working capital
  • Sales that increase steadily
  • Solid balance sheet

If you find that your company is lacking in at least two of the three areas, it may be time to get out before the whole thing comes crashing down.Disclaimer: I am not an investment professional. Nothing in this piece or on this Web site should be construed as investment advice. Before making investment decisions, do your own research and/or consult with an investment professional. All investment comes with the risk of loss. You are responsible for your own investment decisions and any loss that may result from your decisions.

  1. Management issues.
  2. Competitive disadvantages.
  3. Unstable financial model.

I have to say that I agree. (Well, who is going to disagree with the Fool?) I am a big fan of looking at the fundamentals. Since I am a long-term investor looking for solid value — even if the returns aren’t large and fast — the fundamentals are important to me.

Management issues

Is the management of the company selfish? Is management inept? Or both? These are clues that what’s best for the shareholders is not something that the company is really worried about. The Motley Fool suggests these as clues regarding management issues:

  • Active insider selling
  • Declining market share
  • Excessive executive compensation
  • Aggressive accounting

I’d also add in there a lack of transparency with regard to corporate governance and accounting. If management doesn’t want you to see what is going on, there is probably a reason.

Competitive disadvantages

Choose companies that have some sort of advantage over the competition. If you see that a company whose stock you own is at a distinct disadvantage, it is probably an indication that you need to consider selling. This disadvantage could cause problems later. If, however, the company has a disadvantage that it is working to correct, it might be wise to withold final judgment for a time — provided you have the time.

Unstable financinal model

One of the reasons my retirement account hasn’t been terribly hard hit is because the companies in it don’t rely on devices that make the company fundamentally unstable. Financing companies and investments banks that made their money on derivatives (basically insurance against debt) were banking on a model that is fundamentally unstable. Indeed, a great deal of consumer debt is unstable, and if a company relies heavily on that sort of thing, you can see where trouble might arise. The Motley Fool recommends that you consider these items when looking at a business model:

  • Rising (or at least stable) margins
  • Control over working capital
  • Sales that increase steadily
  • Solid balance sheet

If you find that your company is lacking in at least two of the three areas, it may be time to get out before the whole thing comes crashing down.

Tags: , , , ,
, ,

AddThis Social Bookmark Button

Feeds and Bookmarking
Archives
Articles