Forecasters Upgrade Threat For Upcoming Hurricane Season
Researchers at the Department of Atmospheric Studies at Colorado State University have revised their earlier forecasts for the upcoming hurricane season. The researchers are now predicting a “well above average” hurricane season for the eastern United States.
The team’s forecast now anticipates 15 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30. Eight of the storms are predicted to become hurricanes, and of those eight, four are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
Hurricane predictions can be a very inexact science, the forecasts for the last two years have also produced above normal predictions, when in fact they were very mild. The researchers themselves acknowledge this, saying that the Atlantic basin has the largest year to year variability of any of the world’s tropical cyclone basins.
This year’s forecast is based on a statistical model that uses weather data collected over the last 58 years. Using the model for each year’s weather data, it accurately predicted an above or below normal forecast for 45 out of the 58 years.
While this is a forecast for overall hurricane activity, we also need to keep in mind that it does not predict how many of these storms will actually make land fall.
