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Archive for the ‘Interest Rates’ Category

Lower Interest Rates and the Bigger Picture

Piggy BankFar too often consumers are so concerned with what their interest rates are that they never take a step back and look at the bigger picture.  While low interest rates for debt are great and high interest rates for savings are fantastic, the interest rate should not become the be-all, end-all reason driving people to put their money in certain places. 
 

The interest rate you earn on an interest-bearing account should not be the only reason your money is parked there.  In other words, look beyond the interest rate.
 

What about fees? It doesn’t matter if your credit card has a 0% APR if you are paying a fee every month just for the privilege of carrying the card around in your wallet.  Your mortgage loan’s interest rate might be lower than everyone else on your block, but your neighbors may not have a costly prepayment penalty or Private Mortgage Insurance with every payment.  Some fees are inevitable when dealing with debt, but some lenders will offer low interest rates to get your attention and then hit you with a barrage of fees.
 

Fees apply to savings too.  Why in the world should you pay a fee every statement cycle for your savings account? Your money should be earning interest without having the balance slowly whittled away by fees.  There are simply too many financial institutions offering feeless interest-bearing accounts with impressive interest rates for you to keep your money in an account that is getting constantly bombarded by fees, regardless of the interest rate they give you.
 

What about your needs? You might have a credit card with a low interest rate, but would you be better served by a rewards card with a slightly higher interest rate that allows you to accumulate cash, travel benefits, or more? If you are the type of person who regularly utilizes a credit card, yet always pays the balance off each month, then a rewards card can result in some really attractive bonuses.  You can apply this same logic to an equity loan.  Yes, you will probably pay a higher interest rate for a fixed equity loan, but isn’t that better than having an initially lower adjustable interest rate that has the potential to shoot sky-high when interest rates rise?
 

Savings accounts should be about more than interest rates.  Examine the reason why your money is in savings.  For example, if you’re building up an emergency fund you won’t want this money to sit in an account with a high interest rate which also happens to be quite risky.  Losing your entire emergency fund due to a downward swing of the market is bad news.   
 

A low interest rate for credit and a high interest rate for savings can be a great starting point to grab your attention, but a savvy consumer will know that there are other aspects to take into consideration. 

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Demand For Treasury Bills Driving Down Yields

us-treasury-securities.jpgIn times of economic distress, investors flock to safety.  The bond market usually acts as a safe harbor for many investors but the precarious financial position of many bond insurers has many shying away from corporate and municipal debt.

Since last summer, demand for treasury securities as well as the Fed’s rate cutting campaign, has steadily driven down yields.  Demand for 1 month T-bills has been especially brisk, with a number of money market funds reluctant to invest in short term commercial paper.

Back in March, in the wake of the near collapse of Bear Sterns, the yields on 1 month T-Bills fell to 0.27%, it’s lowest in over half a century.  Yields recovered slightly in the beginning of this month but are once again below 1 percent.

With many institutional investors feeling that the stock market hasn’t hit it’s bottom yet, the short maturing T-Bill gives them a safe haven to tide their money away until they feel the time is right to jump back into stocks while sacrificing very little liquidity.  The Treasury Department has also decreased the minimum face value of it’s securities to $100, down from $1,000 as of April 7, which makes it viable purchase for a larger number of investors.

Keep in mind that this is all taking place while inflation is on the rise and that the “real” yield is actually negative.  What we have now is an upward sloping yield curve, which is a favorable situation for banks.  Banks are able to borrow short at lower rates and lend long at higher rates.  Depending on how inflation plays out, long term interest rates may even rise further in the near future.

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Consumer Spending Numbers Misleading

consumer_spending.jpgRecent economic data shows only a slight slowing in consumer spending but those numbers are misleading.  Higher prices are to blame for this, so while Americans may be spending the same amount of money, they are getting much less for their dollars than they did a year ago.

While some of it’s inflation, the weakness in the dollar also plays a large part in this because of the American consumer’s propensity for purchasing imports.  With the Fed forced to slash interest rates to cope with the growing credit crisis, the situation is not expected to improve anytime soon.

Americans are feeling the strain, especially in states like California and Florida.  With foreclosure rates at three times the national average, the housing bust has hit these regions especially hard.

Consumer confidence is at the lowest its been in years and we aren’t even technically in a recession yet.  People are having to spend a larger percentage of their disposable income on necessities like food and energy, whose prices have soared over the last year.

Many retailers are struggling as more and more Americans grow worried about inflation and job security.  While the economic stimulus package will provide a little relief, it is becoming increasingly unlikely that we will be able to spend our way out of this economic downturn.

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