Federal Reserve & Interest Rates

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Fed VC Speaks on Risk Management and Financial Stability

Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board Donald Kohn gave a speech today in North Carolina.  He stressed thekohn_don.jpg needs for a better response to financial turmoil.  He offered his take on what banks and the Federal Reserve need to do.  Here are some highlights of his speech.

A more resilient financial system will also require banks to strengthen all aspects of the originate-to-distribute model. They need to pay more attention to origination, including when they are distributing credits they have not originated. And they need to ensure that when they distribute risks into the market with securitization, the risks really are distributed and will not come back onto their balance sheet later.

Banks and investors must devote more effort to due diligence when investing in structured products, and they must avoid relying so heavily on credit rating agencies to do all their homework for them.

Banks must come to grips with the implications that their capital markets businesses have for liquidity risk management.

All banks–large and small–need to consider whether they need greater capital cushions.

At the Federal Reserve and at other bank regulatory agencies, our job is to reinforce the incentives and actions that are building a more resilient financial system. We need to make sure that regulatory minimum capital requirements and liquidity management plans protect reasonably well against shocks becoming systemic. Our supervisory guidance needs to be in place to prevent backsliding when, over the coming years, the memories and lessons of the current market turmoil fade, as they certainly will.

Vice Chairman Kohn also talked about some specific financial stability concerns.  Here are the three issues that he noted.

First, securities markets have become so large that commercial banks simply lack sufficient capital and balance sheet capacity to readily fill the gap when markets are impaired.

Second, banks themselves are more dependent on well-functioning securities markets, and as that dependence and the important role of banks as ultimate providers of funding to those markets became clearer, pressures on banks mounted.

Third, large commercial banks and investment banks have increasingly similar risk profiles, so that all are subject to the same risk-management challenges under the same circumstances.

Kohn is basically worried about excessive leverage problems and the susceptibility to runs on banks and securities firms.  He believes that monetary policy needs to give attention to the “liquidity risk-management policies and practices of major investment banks,” and commercial banks.

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Paulson Recommends Changes for the Fed

United States Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson made a statement on Federal Reserve500px-henry_paulson_official_treasury_photo_2006.jpg regulations on Wednesday, March 26, 2008 at the US Chamber of Congress. He expressed the need to slightly reform the lending practices of the Federal Reserve, urging more transparency and more informed lending decisions.

Secretary Paulson discussed the discount window operations of the Federal Reserve. The discount window offers a cash flow supply for commercial banks and allows the Federal Reserve to increase market liquidity. The Secretary suggested a few minor tweaks in the more recent lending to non-depository institutions that have access to the discount window on a temporary basis.

Secretary Paulson stated:

I believe a few constructive steps would enable the Federal Reserve to protect its balance sheet, and ultimately protect U.S. taxpayers….The Fed should describe eligible institutions, articulate the situations in which funds will be made available, and the magnitude and pricing structure for the funds. The TAF process is a good model for a structure that would provide relevant information to the marketplace.

…The Federal Reserve should have the information about these institutions it deems necessary for making informed lending decisions…We suggest that the Federal Reserve, the SEC, and the CFTC continue their work of building a robust cooperative framework… These regulators should consider whether a more formalized working agreement should be entered into to reflect these events.

With this added information flow, the Federal Reserve will be better positioned to consider market stability issues like liquidity provisioning and the interconnectedness of financial institutions. The Federal Reserve’s participation could also allow for broader consideration of market stability issues by the SEC and the CFTC. This collaborative process will necessarily have a strong focus on liquidity and funding issues.

The combination of these steps should provide the Federal Reserve with a structure and the information that it would need to make liquidity backstop loans during periods of market instability to non-banks.

It seems what Paulson is basically trying to say is that the Federal Reserve would be able to handle liquidity and funding issues better if they were not standing alone. More open communications with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission would protect taxpayers and avoid moral hazard. Moral hazard in this situation is basically when banks have incentive to take higher risks because they know that the Federal Reserve will insure them or bail them out.

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Project Life Line: A Plan to Help Delinquent Borrowers

The Bush Administration is instituting a new plan to help homeowners who are facing foreclosures. The new plan, called Project Life Line, will affect a great deal of borrowers that are in danger of losing their homes.

The plan specifically addresses every homeowner who has been delinquent 90 days or more. The Treasury Department, and the Department of Housing and Urban Development are announcing this morning. Serious delinquencies headed for foreclosure will be paused for 30 days so that borrowers can communicate with lenders to work out more affordable payment terms. All foreclosure activity for these homeowners will be 100dollarhouse.jpgsuspended for a month, including all stages of foreclosure.

Mortgages held by six major chain banks are already a part of Project Life Line. These are Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Countrywide Financial Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Washington Mutual Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. Other lenders will hopefully become involved in the plan as well.

This plan will affect a broader base of home owners that last year’s Hope Now plan. There was a series of criterion that had to be met to qualify for the assistance program. With the new Project Life Line plan, anyone who has defaulted 90 days or more qualifies.

Home prices have been falling and those who borrowed against their equity expecting to sell or refinance now owe more than the worth of their homes. Even those individuals will excellent credit ratings are struggling with high payments. Many adjustable-rate mortgages set up low payment plans for the beginning of repayment, but require higher payments down the line. Since home values have gone down, refinancing would come up short of what borrowers in these situations now owe, and payments still tend to be unmanageable.

With this foreclosure freeze, many borrowers that are in trouble will hopefully be able to work out affordable plans or refinance their mortgages so that they can keep their homes. The six major lenders will be very busy for the next month, as the Project Life Line plan appeals to a broad base of homeowners at this point. Combined with rate cuts and the new fiscal stimulus plan, the rapid increase in the number of foreclosures may slow down. The combination of these positive moves is a step in the right direction.

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