By Weamein Yee
May 6th, 2008

The Fed’s rate slashing campaign has appeared to right the floundering financial system but nonetheless the housing slump continues to worsen. The Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke before the Columbia School of Business on Monday and remarked on mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures.
“Most Americans are paying their mortgages on time and are not at risk of foreclosure. But high rates of delinquency and foreclosure can have substantial spillover effects on the housing market, the financial markets, and the broader economy. Therefore, doing what we can to avoid preventable foreclosures is not just in the interest of lenders and borrowers. It’s in everybody’s interest.”
He also calls for an increased role for the Federal Housing Administration as well as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in assisting the housing market. These agencies may have to step up their efforts to provide liquidity to mortgage markets as the commercial banking system appears unwilling at the moment.
Home prices have continued to fall as private financial institutions have tightened lending standards significantly, which is having an adverse effect on housing demand. Bernanke is expecting the high rate of foreclosures to continue at least to the end of the year.
One also has to keep in mind that there could be a considerable lag from the time credit markets are fully restored to when it will have a noticeable effect on the housing market. The opposite was the case, as it took a year after home prices began to fall before financial system was rocked by sub prime write downs.
The Fed’s latest rate cut will probably be the last one it will make for some time, with two members of the open market committee dissenting in last week’s vote. I believe that they would prefer to keep interest rates at their current level for as long as possible but recently the president of the Kansas City district has called the problem of inflation “serious” and that the Fed may be prompted to raise rates.
By Weamein Yee
May 2nd, 2008

Earlier today, the Labor Department released employment data which showed that the economy lost 20,000 jobs in the month of April, much less than the 75,000 which economists had forecasted. The Secretary of Labor issued this statement after the report was released.
“In today’s better than expected jobs report, both payroll employment and the unemployment rate were essentially unchanged from last month. While we continued to see declines in construction and manufacturing, the service-providing sector of the economy showed an encouraging increase of 90,000 jobs. The economic stimulus checks, some of which have already been mailed out, should help working families cope with the very real short term challenges of the current economy.”
The news comes as a pleasant surprise on the heels of the Fed’s rate cut on Wednesday. The impression that the Fed will keep rates at their current level for the near future has also helped in stabilizing the dollar’s free fall in currency markets, while also putting a damper on rising oil prices.
Today, the Fed also announced measures to inject more liquidity into credit markets by increasing the loan amounts for it’s Term Auction Facility to $150 billion, an increase of $50 billion from the previous month. This is in coordination with European and Swiss central banks which also announced liquidity moves, albeit at a much smaller scale.
It remains to be seen what impact the economic stimulus package will have on consumer spending and economic growth in the upcoming months but for now a relatively positive news week has left many analysts with the feeling that the economic downturn might be milder that what many people once feared.
By Weamein Yee
April 30th, 2008

This afternoon, the Federal Reserve announced the seventh rate cut since it began slashing interest rates last September. It lowered both the benchmark federal funds rate as well as the discount rate by 25 basis points to 2% and 2.25% respectively.
The Commerce Department also released economic data which showed that GDP had slowed in the first quarter to a 0.6% annual growth rate. In a press release, the Fed acknowledged the worsening of the economy despite it’s recent efforts.
Recent information indicates that economic activity remains weak. Household and business spending has been subdued and labor markets have softened further. Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and tight credit conditions and the deepening housing contraction are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.
In a sign that the credit crisis may be easing somewhat and that inflation remains a concern, it was the smallest rate cut the Fed instituted this year. While core inflation has slowed recently, energy and food prices have continued to skyrocket.
Some economists have been critical of the Fed for lowering interest rates to the point that short term Treasury yields are now below the rate of inflation which causes a disincentive to saving. Still, many analysts believe that this will probably be the last rate cut we see for some time unless credit conditions worsen again.
The Fed will most likely wait and see what impact the economic stimulus package has on consumer spending before making any further moves. Rebate check began going out to households earlier this week.