Trends of Inflation
In my last post I did my best to convince you that rising interest rates aren’t evil in and of themselves. In fact, after much digging, it turns out that there are others out there in cyber space who agree with this assessment and hence provided me with some valid truths about the way the world works.
This time let’s dig into how inflation affects some other aspects of daily living. Sure you saw it first hand the last time you filled up at the pump or got to the cash register at the supermarket when what you spent a few months ago netted you half the groceries but have you given a moment’s thought to the fact that hospital costs have risen 8%? Worse yet is that the Fed’s response to pump more money into the economy means that even if the economy gets its well-needed boost, inflation may be here to stay.
So here’s the good news- there are a few realities to consider in times of inflation. This is the era of the tangible good. As inflation rises and the value of the dollar sinks, tangible goods have an edge over securities (especially bonds). Blame it on the human condition if you must, but there is simple logic in the appeal of goods (gold, gems, diamonds, antiques, art, etc.) over paper. In rough waters, it is the anchor that keeps us feeling safe and secure and in this case that anchor comes in the form of intrinsic worth that doesn’t fluctuate, even as paper money loses its value.
In addition, fixed rate loans suddenly become much more appealing in times of rapid inflation. Lenders know it and regret not selling you a variable rate loan when they had the chance. What’s the logic here? Simple: You’ll repay a fixed number of dollars every month, even as the dollar’s value tumbles to less than it was when you took out the loan. Not the case with ARMs (adjustable rate mortgages), adjustable home equity lines, and most of all credit cards! To make up for the fact that the dollar is worth less, all it takes is a rate hike to make up the difference to the lender.


We’re only human right? And as humans it is in our nature to celebrate low interest rates. Lower rates make loans cheaper and therefore the material goodness we all seek (cars, houses, boats, and motor homes) more attainable. After last week’s rate slash, the Federal Reserve has been hinting toward the fact that this may mark the end of the rate cuts in an effort to stimulate the economy. So does this mean goodbye to those material goods mentioned above? Perhaps, but there is no need for panic just yet. Believe it or not, low interest rates sometimes make big trouble as they tend to increase demand and with increases in demand without corresponding increases in supply we experience a little phenomenon known as inflation. In other words, yes, there are a few more dollars left in your pocket after you’ve paid all of your bills, but those dollars are worth a lot less than they would be had your interest rate been a bit higher.